The Arctic Permafrost Atlas — A journey through icy worlds

156 pages with unique maps, illustrations, drone footage and photographs allow the reader to delve into the world of permafrost, and to catch a glimpse of what life is like in Arctic communities. Impacts of ongoing and future permafrost thaw are discussed from a holistic perspective, combining state-of-the-art knowledge from both, physical and social sciences. The atlas is available for free download at www.grida.no/publications/998. In the following, we summarise the topics presented.

Permafrost are soils or sediments that remain continously frozen for at least two consecutive years. These permanently frozen grounds are most common in regions with cold climate. Around 15 % of the Northern Hemisphere  is underlain by permafrost, including large areas of Alaska, Canada, Greenland, and Siberia. Permafrost also occurs in high mountain regions e.g., the Tibetan Plateau, in the Andes, or in the Alps. Only a minority of permafrost exists in Antartica, mostly in ice free regions of the continent and the sub-Antartic islands.

Permafrost – A global perspective (https://www.grida.no/resources/16350).

The vast majority of “permafrost residents” actually lives in the Russian Federation — with smaller populations in the U.S.A. (particularly Alaska), Canada, Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland) and much fewer in the Scandinavian Arctic.

Life on frozen Ground. (available under: https://www.grida.no/resources/16268)

Yet, climate warming is accelerated even further by this release of greenhouse gases. While we know that this mechanism, called the permafrost carbon climate feedback, is significant for determining the trajectory of our future climate, its speed and extent remains one of the larges uncertainties in climate models. In October 2024, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released an updated synthesis report which revealed that the global temperature rise is currently on track of a devastating level of 2.7 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, which implies the loss of permafrost in the yellow and light red regions.

Declining Permafrost Extent. Map showing the modeled decline in permafrost extent at different warming scenarios. (available under: https://www.grida.no/resources/16284).

Arctic permafrost landscapes are characterized by a variety of different landscapes features, with Pingos being among the most typical forms. The ice-core mounts stands out from the flat tundra landscapes such as in coastal region of Canadian northwest territories near Tuktoyaktuk. This region accounts for the highest concentration of Pingos in the world with 1,350 counted in the Mackenzie delta. The Pingo Canadian Landmark is an protected area of 16 square meter including eight Pingos near Tuktoyaktuk, as well as  the highest of Canada, Ibyuk, standing at 49 meters height. These features are formed in ice rich tundra terrain. This type of Pingos forms in old lakes that have drained where remaining underground water pockets are pushed upwards due to permafrost transgression. When freezing, these waterbodies expand in volume and soil and sediments get pushed upward, forming this hill shaped feature.  While Ibyuk pingo is about 1000 years old and still growing, it also shows sings of slumping and degradation. Pingos are an important cultural landscape feature and are used for generation in the Inuvialuit region as navigational aid, for hunting caribous, or fishing beluga whales. In this area, vast rates of coastal erosion due to permafrost degradation threaten the local community and the Pingos.

Another typical landform-feature of ground-ice-rich permafrost are so-called ice-wedge polygons, which, for example can be found at the Paulatuk Peninsula at the Northwest Territories, Canada. This Peninsula, located in an alluvial terrace at the entrance of the Amundsen Gulf, hosts 300 inhabitants of the Inuvialuit region, a community that is mainly living from traditional subsistence activities such as caribou hunting and fishing. Ice-wedges in the ground develop as the result of cyclic freeze and thaw events, followed by repeated soil frost cracking and water infiltration, on centennial timescales. A network of water filled troughs forms during summer when the ice-wedge melt. Studies in this area have noted an expansion of the number and surface of these water ponds which are caused by permafrost degradation and climate warming. However, also by the influence of human infrastructures plays a role. The airstrip is favoring the accumulation and retention of water on its margins. Moreover snow tends to accumulate more along constructions, enhancing permafrost degradation. In these settlements, habitations and facilities are largely build above ice-wedges. Permafrost and ice-wedge degradation hence causes subsidence and threatens infrastructure stability. In Paulatuk coastal erosion is an additional threat to infrastructure that has been significantly accelerating in the last decades. For example, the coast adjacent to the airstrip showed erosion rates up to 0.9 meters per year. Associated to storms events and sea-level rise, coastal erosion triggers the flooding of low-lying and subsiding areas in Paulatuk. Community adaptation and strategies are needed to face the hazards of coastal erosion and permafrost degradation in Paulatuk.

 Paulatuk Peninsula, Northwest Territories, Canada (available under: https://www.grida.no/resources/16329).

Thawing Arctic permafrost presents serious risks to infrastructure, particularly as the climate continues to warm. Coastal infrastructure in the Arctic faces both permafrost thaw and rising coastal erosion, threatening human safety in these areas. In 2021, the first pan-Arctic assessment of coastal infrastructure built on permafrost was conducted using high-resolution satellite data, revealing that Russia has the largest infrastructure footprint, primarily for oil and gas, followed by Canada and the U.S. This footprint has grown by 15% since 2000, largely due to expanding oil and gas development.

The Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Region, a crucial gas-producing area in Russia, exemplifies these challenges, facing infrastructure instability from rising ground temperatures and landslides, also called thaw slumps. Thaw slumps appear as large, curved depressions along coastlines, riverbanks, lakeshores, and hill slopes and can be several hundreds of metres wide. As the climate warms, these thaw slump activity is increasing alongside with carbon mobilisation. These erosion moments can largely restrict the mobility of indigenous peoples and make travelling e.g., by boat more risky or time consuming.

3D image of a retrogressive thaw slump (available under: https://www.grida.no/resources/16305).

Besides permafrost thaw posing various risks to the Arctic environment via e.g., the release of greenhouse gasses, permafrost thaw has also far-reaching implications for the livelihoods of approximately three millions Arctic residents who live on frozen grounds. Understanding these risks is crucial for informed policy planning and adaptation measures. A comprehensive risk analysis identified five interrelated key impacts: (i) infrastructure failure, (ii) disruption of mobility and supply routes, (iii) potential deterioration of water quality, (iv) challenges to food security, and (v) increased risk from infectious diseases and contaminants. Infrastructure  is particularly at risk in coastal areas, along rivers, in deltas and in mountainous regions. As one study participant reported: ‘I have a camp by the river. This summer, a large piece of land next to my cabin broke off and plunged into the river. When we came back, the cabin was gone. It’s scary!’ Some erosion is slow, but in delta regions, up to a hundred metres of land can break off overnight. In Canada, erosion is also affecting food security as hunting and fishing huts become more difficult to reach, soils turn into quicksand and landslides have to be avoided. In Longyearbyen on Svalbard, the thawing of the permafrost is threatening access to clean drinking water, as the dam of the main source, Isdammen, is based on frozen ground. This is causing great concern for the health and well-being of the people. In terms of health and ecosystems, contaminants from old oil and gas pits, released by thawing soils, are becoming a problem. Historically, the industry assumed permanently frozen ground and left remains in the soil – an assumption that is now changing.

The Big Picture — Key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw. (available under: https://gridarendal-website).

Also in the Alps, depending on geological conditions, the disappearance of permafrost can lead to increased landslides and rockfalls in places where they were not previously possible. Rockfalls pose a threat to mountain hikers and to infrastructure built on permafrost, such as Alpine huts, ski lifts and avalanche barriers.

Modeled permafrost coverage in the Alps (available under: https://www.grida.no/resources/16355).

For further information, viewing all graphics, downloading the Atlas, or ordering a physical copy visit: https://www.grida.no/publications/998